Statistical randomness?

I have a sneaking suspicion about A-League results. Other pundits wax on about how "interesting" the salary cap makes the A-League. It makes it fair. It makes the game a level playing field across all areas. Every represented team, no matter how poorly attended, can have an equal shot at winning games, the Premiership and the Grand Final.

Maybe. Yep. Sure, I get it. But I'm suspicious that it does a lot more than just make the league more "interesting". For example, the most supported team in the land can't outspend and therefore outperform most or all of the other teams. And so it flounders around the bottom of the table.

It's a travesty that such a well supported club like Melbourne Victory can't spend bigger to attract bigger players and attract more fans and greater revenue. In Melbourne, in Australia, all over Asia. Why not?

FFA is running the A-League like a socialist state. Sure, everyone gets the same food coupons, and the same sized slice of pie, but it's a much smaller pie than would be available if the system was run more like the free market.

In a competition where team budgets are relatively even, there is a limit on how much you can achieve. The Victory board, running its expenditure like a 12 year-old boy playing fantasy football, stacked its deck with attackers, forgot about midfielders and thought it didn't need to spend on a coach. Boy, did that work out well...

Other teams, who many pundits said "don't have the cattle to play that style", like the Jets, spread their money more thinly and widely, and now perform admirably.

If a team gets lucky and employs a very crafty and intelligent coach, who can pick cheap talent, you might get a team like Brisbane that performs well consistently, with a few bargain-basement talisman players.

But when it all comes down to it, there is a strong case to be made that the salary cap drastically reduces the statistical possibility of creating one team superior to the others.

This means that on any given day, home, or away, one team can beat the other.

If I flip a coin 30 times, I'm bound to get runs of heads followed by runs of tails, or heads and tails in random order.

Forget the Heart's winning streak earlier in the season, forget Melbourne Victory's dire record this entire season.

It's all down to luck, statistically speaking. Your team is in its position on the ladder largely due to luck. How many times has Archie hit the woodwork this season? What if those went in? Victory would be much further up the ladder.

Perth had a dismal early part of the season. And now they are one of the form teams. Not really, they were just thrashed by the cellar-dwellers. They played almost exactly the same way earlier in the season and now the rub of the green has changed from going against them to going for them.

Even Central Coast Mariners, who have a very fine coach with hardworking players have struggled recently. Why? Have they suddenly become worse at football? No, it's just random variables mucking about with them.

And Brisbane Roar, who had that immense record-breaking run, due largely to a very crafty and intelligent manager, has gone on to have ordinary results in recent times.

And all that's without even mentioning questionable referees decisions.

So what's the point of this discussion? And what's the solution, if there even needs to be one?

The point is, that this salary-cap, while working to give everyone a chance, knobbles those that could really lift the game in Australia and it makes the table (mostly) a result of random statistical variations.

I'd be willing to bet that you could re-start this season all over again and apart from one or two teams, the table would be completely different. Sydney would be wooden spoon, Gold Coast would be in the finals and Melbourne Victory would be Premiers.

The FFA salary floor limits new entries and slows potential growth of the league and the game as a whole in Australia.

The solution is to lower the entry fee and lower the salary floor and simultaneously raise the salary cap. As long as new teams can cover essentials like team travel and operating costs, and provide a Foxtel suitable stadium, let them enter.

That might mean there would be minnows from regional areas that would be regularly trounced by big city clubs. So what? It happens all the time, all over the world, in the Premier League, La Liga, the SPL etc. As long as there were a few minnows, it wouldn't matter.

Lowering the salary floor might allow South Melbourne to enter the A-League, as well as make it easier for Canberra, Wollongong, Tasmania and another New Zealand club. It would allow western Sydney to enter small and then build.

Raising the salary cap would free up Sydney FC to spend more to bring the club to a position it should be, as one of the largest football clubs in the country, with huge fan support and mesmerising performances.

It would allow Melbourne Victory to buy more flashy footballers to feed the hunger of its fans. It would allow Nathan Tinkler to buy Newcastle a few shiny marquee players, or the Bakrie group to splash cash into Brisbane.

The problem at the moment is that no matter who your team is playing this weekend, you really have no idea whatsoever whether they will win, draw or lose. It's all just random. And that's stupid. You might as well go watch frog races.

The Jets are a shambles

It's been a very average festive season for the Jets.

Yes, they won on Wednesday, with some great goals then lost against Victory, playing better football.

But that only papers over the cracks.

The Jets are in disarray, with Gary van Egmond moving players around all over the place in an attempt to get things to work. Apart from the game against Gold Coast, the playing recently in the back third has been very poor. At least Gary figured out it was a good idea to play with two holding midfielders against Gold Coast, but we still let in two goals.

The earlier game against Wellington was absolutely awful. The defending was poor. Tiago, the appointed Captain was caught out ball watching on a number of occasions. While he might look okay going forward, his defending is poor. Why on earth was he captain? And the way he went down in that tackle that had Mehmet red carded during the Perth game just isn't on. I don't know about you, but I don't want play-actors on the team I support. Toppa also had a game to forget too in Wellington but I dont think he deserved not to start against Gold Coast.

To those who cried "Branko Out!", I wonder what you would be thinking now. I didn't necessarily agree with all of Branko's choices either. But how is Gary van Egmond doing?

When van Egmond came in, I thought we might be in for a bit more flowing, passing football instead of the "ball over the top". That hasn't eventuated at all. So what is the van Egmond philosophy? He keeps talking about it but I really cannot see it. He seems like an intelligent guy but if you can't get the team to play how you want to without resorting to blaming the players publicly, maybe you need to go and do some people management courses. Isn't people management part of coaching? Yes, it is, that was a rhetorical question.

If it's possession based football that Gary is trying to play, why can't he teach the players to keep the ball or pass accurately? Passing has been dreadful at times, with a few players in particular to blame. But can all the blame be laid at their feet? I don't think it can. van Egmond is the coach and he must instill in them the desire to keep the ball, to look to receive the ball and to pass it accurately to a team mate. Now if he can't do that, with nearly half the season at his disposal, he needs to look at his training regime or his coaching technique.

I don't buy into the "we don't have the cattle to play like that" argument. I saw the Jets play a possession based game in Adelaide a few weeks back and while it didn't result in a winning scoreline, and was weak on attacking power, it was something to build on. It looked like Brisbane when they aren't scoring goals. And that's better than disorder.

At present, the team looks fractured and unstructured, saved by the midfield work of Michael Bridges and the tireless energy of Griffiths, Haliti and Brockie up front. Wehrman is class, but needs to be used sparingly. He's coughing up possession, losing his footing and generally looking tired at the moment. When he looks to take people out instead of the ball, you know he's getting to that point where his previous speed isn't there any more.

I actually thought van Egmond's plan to try Tarek in a more attacking role worked well, but it meant that a midfield enforcer, Zadkovich, was held down the back. As soon as Tarek moved back to his usual position, he gave too much time to attackers and let two goals go in. What's going on with Tarek? Is it a form dip, a rise in the standard of the league (I don't really think so), or some sort of mental thing? Only once did he defend with the vigour he needed to, to deny Gold Coast an equaliser at the death.

There are a number of players who are putting in a huge effort and deserve acknowledgement. Ryan Griffiths is one, Jeremy Brockie is another, Labinot Haliti, who I have my reservations about, is also working his guts out when he comes on. Ruben Zadkovich, who  doesn't get a lot of plaudits, always plays hard, and keeps it simple. Bridges is still a classy player but is looking quite rusty. He still manages to make some excellent plays and is one of the most creative players we have at the moment.

After looking a little  nervous earlier in the season, Taylor Regan is making that position at the back his own. Sorry Tiago, you'll have to show some great improvement before I'd put you in before Regan.

So if there are a number of decent players putting in big efforts, there has to be something else that isn't working. What is it?

I can only put it down to van Egmond not clearly spelling out the plan to the players, or some of the players not executing it right. The Jets have noticeably improved their efforts down the wing over the past few games, with a number of goals coming from well placed crosses meeting their target in the centre. Unbelievably, Topor Stanley took the initiative and put the ball in to Brockie against Gold Coast. That's what Byun and Tarek should have been doing for the first half of the season and haven't been. Other recent example of better wing play include Griffith's excellent first touch and cross to a waiting Labinot Haliti among other recent efforts.

Gary keeps telling the press that the players musn't compromise on the game plan but except for the noticeable possession based game we saw in Adelaide, I'm confused what his game plan is. Recently I saw Byun wandering around in midfield high up the park. What's he doing up there? I'm not going take aim at him for those two own goals. But Byun hasn't looked "all that" all season and has been guilty of giving attacking players way too much time to line up their shots or get in behind. Let's see what Mario Simic can offer in that position.

Right now, it's very frustrating to be a Jets fan. We can only hope that there are improvements taking place that just aren't visible yet. We can hope that van Egmond becomes a Postecoglou and not a Coolen or a Durakovic. Football is a very immediate sport and the disappointment of seeing losses and wonky draws against ten men doesn't give a fan any happiness or instant gratification. It looks like we're stuck with Gary until the end of next season, so lets hope that something good will come, and soon.

The way things are playing out now, I can't see the Jets consistently competing with teams like Brisbane or the Mariners, and then there will be some dismal road trips like the one to Wellington. That means even if we do make the finals, we won't get very far.

That's a pretty glum round-up but I'm sure I'm not alone in pulling my hair out at the team's"progress" at the moment. There was a definite improvement against Melbourne Victory and I thought a share of the points would have been fairer, as the Jets made Victory look better than they were.

However, it looks like a long road before the Jets can start to act like a team the deserves to be in the finals.

A Christmas Jets wrap

It's been a mixed bag for the Jets of late, with the year looking like it'll end on a pretty poor note. An away loss to the Mariners, a home loss to Sydney FC and a trip to windy Wellington this weekend would have most fans feeling pretty gloomy.

The only shining light recently has been the game against Melbourne Victory. A great game, the atmosphere was first class, the banner display on the Eastern Stand was superb and the win against what was supposed to be THE team of this season was possibly enough to keep most fans happy for a while.

However, I am starting to wonder "what are we doing, Gary?" What's the plan and why isn't it bringing results?

Some pundits are saying that the players don't have heart or passion, and that they're strolling around like Kings for a Day but getting caught with their pants down. Others are already baying for van Egmond's blood, suggesting he is to blame for the Jets "downfall". It's all a bit premature. It might even be a case of square pegs in round holes, at least in midfield. As for our defence, let's not go there, it's been pretty shaky for a while now.

Gary was quoted in the local paper today as saying an away win at Wellington would be a real statement. Well, yes it would since the Jets haven't won there since 1876. It would definitely make Christmas a little brighter. He's also been quoted as saying that he might vary the formation to a 4-4-2. Blimey, I thought managers could do that in the middle of game, even without a press release. Apparently not.

For those of you who didn't hear it, there was a very interesting interview with Branko Culina a week or two ago that is floating around in cyberspace. He was asked very direct questions about the termination of his contract, and after saying he couldn't say much, he explained how it happened.

Shortly after the A-League opening shindig, he was due to visit the offices of his boss Mr Tinkler in his Sydney office. He was told that due to the situation with Jason, he wouldn't be able to work at the club any more.

Branko didn't give much more detail than that, but the strong impression he gave was that the club had decided to annul Jason's contract and they therefore considered that Branko wouldn't or shouldn't be there any more. He said that the two things were completely separate and he's probably right from a factual perspective. The board obviously thought that that Branko would be angered by their decision to renege on Jason's contract and would no longer be able to work to the best of his ability with the club.

It's a tricky one. Would Branko have been able to keep his mind on coaching while his son was being shafted by the very same club? Maybe. Maybe not. The club took to second view. I understand that the club is trying to come to a settlement with both Culinas. Which means they'll give them lots of money, they'll sign a confidentiality agreement and we'll never really know what happened.

Jason is keen to work harder than ever to return to football in the A-League. Given his history and workmanlike approach, I'd back him to return.

Merry Christmas Jets fans, let's hope it brings us 3 points.

Our wing play is crap

In that little square between the other team's box, and the corners, there is an invisible force-field that only the bravest Jets players approach.

I know this because I have seen our left and right wing players look nervous as they approach that area, and either play the ball off backwards or sideways, or put a looping cross in hoping that someone will get on the end of it.

Alright, let's go back a step. Or two.

In the early passages against Adelaide last weekend, I counted at least 17 passes between Jets players in one passage of play. A lot of it was sideways, backwards, then forwards again. And this, to me, was very encouraging. Control the ball and you control the game.

The Adelaide crowd didn't have much chance to get into the game because their team couldn't get much joy for at least the first 30 minutes or more. Way to take the away crowd out the equation Jets.

Movement through the middle was a little more difficult, and with this evolving style of play, it was inevitable that the Jets would either lose possession or pass it backwards again. Not that there's anything wrong with that. There was a problem that the movement of the ball was too slow and transition was slow, but let's leave that issue for now.

Where it got frustrating was up front. I think we were playing too narrow. I really can't understand why though, if we're playing a 4-1-2-3. They should be able to spread very wide with three in the front line. Maybe the idea was to always get the ball to Frannie Jeffers who was in the middle.

There are a number of clear sections of the field when creating an attack, and I'm sure van Egmond knows that you must bring the ball into the midfield, then spread it wide to stretch the other team, disrupt their shape, then bring play back into the centre of the park around the opponent's box.

Where we're failing at is the weak underbelly - the sides of the box. That's where you can either sneak in behind, or play some cheeky balls across the box. These are the hardest balls to defend against.

What we seem to be doing in this area, is getting close to the box and then looping the ball in diagonally. Unless you really have the other team on the back foot, it isn't going to work. They will be facing towards the ball and can see everything before them.

But if you work the ball down towards the side of the box, with two or three players, then play it back into the middle, all hell breaks loose. Why? Because you draw defenders away from the goal, and when the ball does go in the middle, they're looking out to the side, and over their shoulder to see if there is another attacker behind them. It's confusing, there are bodies everywhere. And our attackers are all facing forwards, looking to the ball and the goal. It's also very hard to play the offside trap.

Once or twice in that game, I saw Ruben Zadkovich trying to get into the corner, but no one was there to help him and he was soon closed down by Adelaide defenders.

This wide play is really for Tarek and Byun to do. They either don't have the confidence to run at (or around) defenders, they haven't been told to get VERY wide, or they aren't supported enough when they get there. Whatever the reason is, they have to get wide and deep to create more opportunities.

So that's why I found the game against Adelaide very frustrating. Adelaide didn't have much possession (if I remember correctly, it was about 37 percent - not good enough for a home game), the Jets strangled them and that's one reason it was dull for Adelaide supporters. Another reason it was frustrating was that the Jets just couldn't penetrate and get many chances away.

The Jets need to find their mojo again in the front third and it will come good. Brockie and Griffiths have been very good this season and things will improve. If the passing game through midfield links with an array of options in the final third, our attack should really sting. If.

Green shoots growing

It all comes down to this game

The magic of a great striker

Should you sack your coach?

The road ahead

Lessons To Learn

Jets To Finish In Top Four

Interview with Branko Culina Part 2

Interview with Branko Culina - the Jets off-season.

Another reason I love Newcastle.

The Blog we have to have.

Well played boys

Give Sasho a Contract!

Bring on the FFA Cup

Why the Jets will not be in the finals.

Thirteen thousand, four hundred and sixty-seven

Two games, two wins and the end of King Ljubo.

Football and Facebook

The ghost of early losses lurks

Merry Christmas, you Jets fan.

Sasho hits the target again.

Beckham Beckham Beckham...

4 points from 6 against the top two teams eh?

What else can happen to the Jets?

No goals for the Jets

EAS Stadium turf-war backfires on the Knights

The Jets new tactic for scoring goals.

Who will score for the Jets this weekend?

New owner - new direction?

Ben Kennedy, take a bow.

Try To Be Too Clever By Half

What did I tell you?

Why the Jets will be in the finals.

Dark Clouds Loom

A lot can happen on a week off

Is Adam D'Apuzzo the Jets' Cristiano Ronaldo?

No glory for the Jets in Perth

Heartbreak for Heart

New Season, New Blog